Is Russia Closing the Window?
Czar Peter the Great built St. Petersburgh as his "window on the west". As the G8 leaders meet there this weekend it is appropriate to ask whether the current openness in Russia is slowly closing.
The G8 group of nations meet annually to discuss economic and political issues common to all. This is a group of rich, democratic nations who have banded together in a common club. A few years ago, on the hope that democracy and freedom was on the rise, Russia was given observer status to the group's meetings. this year the meetings are being hosted by Russia at the seat of the old imperial court of the czars. It is an appropriate place to gather given what has taken place in Russia in recent years.
Russia can hardly be counted as a democracy, and under President Vladimir Putin it has been moving further away from that description. Gradually the president has been gathering more power to himself and many have begun to say the country is closer to the old czarist form of government than anything resembling a modern democracy. The country is working better and revenues are up because of the rise in price of natural gas and oil-both of which the country has in abundance.
Here is what the Economist says in its current issue:
"The resurgence is evident in the streets of St Petersburg, and even more so those of Moscow. When Mr Putin took over the presidency in 2000 Russia was a stew of chaos and corruption with a surface scum of ultra-rich oligarchs. The war in Chechnya was entering an even more brutal phase. The default and devaluation of 1998 still cast a long shadow over economic prospects.
Mr Putin has given the country much greater stability and firmness in government. The economy has rebounded, thanks largely, if not exclusively, to high oil prices. Wages and living standards are rising, the last foreign debt is about to be repaid, and most exchange controls have been abolished. A middle class is growing, even in the provinces. Russians can say proudly that they have forced the world to take them seriously again―as at the G8 summit. All this helps to explain why Mr Putin can claim real popularity at home.
But economic growth has gone hand in hand with stunted political development. Over the past few years almost all serious opposition to Mr Putin has been sidelined, co-opted or crushed. The broadcast media, relatively free in the 1990s, has been shut down or taken over by the government and its supporters. The last of Russia's elected regional governors has been sacked, continuing the Kremlin's drive not merely to centralise, but to monopolise, political power. The police and the prosecutors remain a tool of the Kremlin, it is simply that Mr Putin uses them far more effectively than Boris Yeltsin ever did. Corruption is practised less brashly, but perhaps on an even larger scale, than before."
Mr. Putin has used Russia's vast energy resources as an instrument of political power. The Wall Street Journal points out this morning that "In this goal, he has succeeded, as Europe found out in January, during a cold spell, when Kremlin-run Gazprom turned off its gas supplies to Europe overtly over a price dispute with recently democratized Ukraine. "Yesterday tanks, today oil" is how the head of Polish intelligence describes Russia's current threat posture". This article in the current WNP give more background to Russia's energy power.
Iran will be on the agenda this weekend, although partly obscured by the current battles in the Middle East. Russia has not backed other G8 members over Iran's drive to acquire nuclear technology. Behind this tactic is Russia's desire to diminish the United State's influence in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Russia and China continue to build their relationship, something that does not bode well for America.
China's long term goal is to drive American influence out of Asia and assert its own form of control. China has not intervened with North Korea to stop its missile launches in recent weeks. In a recent WNP eNewsletter I pointed out China's long term intentions. Together, Russia and China, are do not have American interests in mind.
America's role in the world is still strong and in many ways very dominating. this effort on the part of other major nations, combined with the toxic brew of Islamic fundamentalism coming out of Muslim world, is putting a strain on this position. America is in the sights of many who would wound her and see her fall. This is one of little understood trends in world events today. It is a trend the Bible prophesies. When it strikes America's Achilles heel it will turn everything upside down.
