Is it doomsday for pensions?

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Is it doomsday for pensions?

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Pensions are no longer a given. Too many defaults in pension funds are jeopardizing comfortable retirements.

Concerning corporate pensions, forbes.com asks, "In the future, will any company offer a pension?" (05/14/05). Their answer, "probably not, and the future is getting closer all the time."

If you are paying into a retirement fund, you cannot be sure of getting your due. A federal bankruptcy judge May 10, 2005, approved United Airlines' plan to terminate its employee' pension funds, clearing the way for the largest corporate-pension default in American history. The airline's pensions are under-funded by an estimated $9.8 billion, of which only about $5 billion will be guaranteed by the new arrangement.

The trend is worrying. Employees of companies like United Airlines could end up with few or no benefits if their employers go broke. When businesses like United renege on pension funds, they force the government to come to the rescue.

But what happens if the government also defaults? Even governments can't pay Social Security if their accounts go bankrupt. How certain are government retirement funds?

U.S. President George Bush sounded an ominous warning in a speech in South Carolina recently. Reuters reported ( April 18, 2005) that he painted a "dire picture of Social Security's future if nothing is done," saying the problems would start in three years when the first baby-boomers retire. He also said, "By 2034 the annual shortfall will be more than $300 billion and by the year 2041 the entire system will be bankrupt."

He is urging younger workers to consider private retirement accounts. That's too late for older workers. Bush also cited a proposal to raise the retirement age from the current 65 to 67, and that even age 70 was an option.

Canada's pension funds also are in jeopardy. Mercer Human Resource Consulting said of Canadian health and corporate pension plans, "The financial health of Canadian pension plans ended the first quarter of 2005 as weak as at any point in the last few years" (Canwest News Service). They further explained that at the end of last year about 70% of pension funds wouldn't have had enough money to fully cover their pension promises if they were wound up—which was no improvement over the previous year.

So it's fair to ask, what is the probability of receiving your paid-for pension fund in your lifetime? And what is the chance of even your government going bankrupt? It is actually very high.

Investigative journalist Michael Harris wrote "People with money are always worried about it. So when two of the richest Americans in the world start selling their U.S. dollars, it should at least get as much attention as the Super Bowl. Warren Buffet and Bill Gates don't like what they see on the economic horizon. How could they? The world's 'richest' country, their country, is awash in unprecedented debt" (Ottawa Sun, Canada, February 4, 2005).

Harris explained that if all the debt in the U.S. is added up, the number is four times that of the gross domestic product. To run a deficit like that governments must borrow from others to service their indebtedness. For this they look to foreign governments. Harris also wrote that the giant economies of Asia, including China, Japan, and India, now hold $2.2 trillion of America's debt in the form of U.S. dollars.

He posed the question of what would happen if America's creditors should reduce their lending. He answered, "our credit-driven consumer merry-go-round would lurch to a halt and the illusion of prosperity would disappear."

Up until now, it was believed that no creditor would ever call in Uncle Sam's IOU. But last year, when China's monetary reserve grew massively, only 25% was in U.S. dollars. What would happen in a major retreat to other currencies should occur—like to the Euro? If an international creditor ever 'pulled the plug' on America's international debt, what sort of downsizing would happen? If your paid-up pension funds disappear, are you ready to tighten your belt?

One thing you can do is to find where real security lies. Then you can "… say with confidence, 'The Lord is my helper; I will not be afraid' " (Hebrews 13:6).

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