Illustrating the strange twists and turns of Middle East politics, Russia and the United States have sold the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.) enough military hardware to make it one of the most formidable military powers in the Persian Gulf. The United States sold the tiny country 80 F-16s, and Russia recently provided the Emirates a top-of-the-line anti-aircraft system.

World News and Prophecy reported on the growing military strength of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in the December 1999 issue ("A New Military Might in the Middle East"). Six nations make up the GCC: Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Begun for economic purposes, the GCC realized over time that they needed to create and maintain military muscle to defend their economic interests. Iran and Iraq are seen as potential antagonists, and the GCC members do not want to be dependent upon the U.S. should they come under threat.

The sale of arms to GCC members brings a double benefit to the United States: cash income, as well as relief from the financial burden of defending the Gulf. Cash is even more welcomed by the hungry Russian bear. But, arming the U.A.E. has brought a new wrinkle to the complex politics of the Middle East. Three tiny islands in the Straight of Hormuz are occupied by Iran, but claimed by the U.A.E. Their increased military also increases their bargaining position-and the potential of conflict. Relations between Russia and Iran were strained already, and this development will likely add even more pressure.

At the same time, a stronger military will also strengthen the U.A.E.'s status vis-à-vis their powerful neighbor, Saudi Arabia. While allies in the GCC, these Persian Gulf nations are still in competition with each other.

Why should we concern ourselves with such a tiny nation as the U.A.E.? Its newly acquired military force speaks with a loud voice. Additionally, the Persian Gulf sits in the shadows of the world's greatest empires and can never be overlooked in geopolitics, whether one is considering oil, religion or human rights-all powerful players on the world stage.

Source: Stratfor's May 30, 2000, press release.