Every farmer understands the importance of seed corn. It is the best of the seed, which is cultivated for future crop production. Without good seed corn, prepared in advance, succeeding harvests will diminish in yield.

In international relations, this concept is helpful in understanding where America stands in today's world. As we move into a new century, the reins of American power will transfer in a few weeks. Now is a time to assess the previous decade and understand what events the next few years may bring. Has a measure of America's "seed corn" been squandered in recent years?

Ten years ago, the United States led a coalition of allied forces in an air and land attack to liberate Kuwait from Saddam Hussein's aggression. While they were successful in this goal, the forces stopped short of ousting the Iraqi leader from his position. Today, Hussein still sits in power in Baghdad with a firm grip that still threatens the stability of the region.

Ten years ago the Berlin Wall had already crumbled and the Soviet Union was in its last months. The Cold War ended with America the victor and the opportunity to shape a new order in the world. Yet today there is still no peace in the Middle East and questions remain about Russia's experiment with economic reform and democratic government.

During the '90s, America rode the wave of its biggest economic expansion in history. With domestic prosperity, there was time to focus on foreign policy issues that needed wise leadership. There should have been time to at least lay the groundwork for future progress.

One of the most important strengths of the American president is the inherent power to shape and conduct foreign policy. It is critical that each administration understands this duty and uses it to benefit American interests and world stability. A president may lack skills in domestic policy. Such weaknesses can often be covered by Congress. But the world looks to the leader of the country as the embodiment of American policy and values. Therefore, it is critical that any administration pursue clear and coherent goals in its relations with the major powers of the world.

Instead, the past eight years of the Clinton administration seemed unclear, unfocused and uncertain. Only in recent months was a concerted effort made to achieve a peace settlement between Israel and Palestine. Even then, it was done in the shadow of "leaving a legacy" for the outgoing president. In July, Camp David talks between Israeli leader Ehud Barak and Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat broke down after coming close to a resolution.

China

China poses a major challenge in the coming years. Its desire to "reunite" with [read "absorb"] Taiwan is a relentless threat to peace in the region. China intends to play a more influential role in Asia and will again run into conflict with its historic rival Russia. This will play a significant role in the balance of power. Add to this China's possession of ballistic missiles capable of hitting the U.S. mainland and its proclivity to export nuclear missile technology to developing nations, and you have an unstable mix.

Instead of achieving significant positions of strength with China during the past eight years, two things are likely to cloud any legacy. One is China's effort to influence the 1996 presidential campaign by making cash contributions to the Democratic Party. The second is the disappearance of sensitive nuclear secrets from the Los Alamos labs. This information was thought to have wound up in Chinese hands. Satisfactory answers to both of these issues have yet to be discovered.

China is not the only nation capable of launching a nuclear attack upon the United States. Russia still has that capability, and other hostile nations, such as North Korea, Iran and Iraq, are known to be developing ballistic capability. America's ability to defend itself against nuclear attack is still debated. Some advocate a space-based, "star wars" type of system, while others prefer a cruiser-based approach that would allow more mobility in deployment. Russia continues to oppose American efforts to upgrade its missile defense capability. Again, years of opportunity have been wasted in this area.

Military defense

While the United States still projects the world's most powerful military force, the past 10 years have seen a marked decline in capability. Given the state of preparedness, some seriously question whether America could mount another Desert Storm type operation.

Between 1990 and 2000, the number of army divisions has been reduced from 18 to nine. The navy has shrunk from 600 ships to 300. The number of air wings has declined from 36 to 18. America's military defensive forces have been effectively cut in half. When a nation relies on its armed forces for defense, the military must be kept in top shape and at sufficient numbers. America has also projected its power to other nations and thereby acted as a guarantor of peace or policeman. Without that capability, and the threat it carries, the world would be a much different place. Historically, America's military role has meant more to the stability of the world than any other nation in recent history.

What lies ahead?

What challenging events could the next U.S. president face? Economists believe that the United States, 18 years into the biggest period of economic stability the world has seen, is long overdue for an economic correction. Many think the country is overdue for both a stock market correction and a recession. Today's budget surplus overshadows the overspending of the past eight years, but that flawed management would become obvious during an economic downturn.

The next president could see the first nuclear war since 1945. Expert analysts suspect the most likely spot for such a confrontation would be on the India-Pakistan border. Both nations have demonstrated to the world their nuclear capability and this region continues to be a hot spot of military activity.

In October, the USS Cole was attacked by suicide terrorist bombers while docked in Oman. Two years ago, terrorists bombed American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. Many feel that it is only a matter of time before America will experience a major attack within its borders that would be larger than any previous effort.

Former Clinton National Security Advisor Anthony Lake has written a book, 6 Nightmares: Real Threats in a Dangerous World and How America Can Meet Them. In one scenario, terrorists release anthrax into a stadium full of sports fans. Days later, after suffering fever, chest pain and vomiting, more than 17,000 spectators die. With anthrax, there is no smell, taste or sight to warn you of an attack. The first signs show up days later, when it is too late. Authorities have actually run a drill of such a scenario in preparation for a possible real-life attack. Between 1993 and 1995 several arrests were made of people trying to sell, buy or cross international borders with deadly biological or chemical weapons.

Lake is of the opinion that the United States has been living in prosperous times with the mistaken impression that the Cold War is over and that it faces no real threats. "We're not using these good times to prepare for the threats that are very clearly coming or are already upon us in this new century," said Luke. "I wrote the book as a warning that I hope could in some small way stimulate action in our society and our government" (Book Magazine, November/ December 2000)

The foresight of Joseph

God showed the biblical patriarch Joseph that Pharaoh's dream meant there would be seven years of plenty in advance of seven lean years. Through his efforts, and with the cooperation of the Egyptian leader, Joseph steered the economy on a course that enabled it to prepare for the years of famine. Egypt was able to maintain its position of regional power and to aid in the preservation of a key family, Jacob and his descendants, with whom God was working.

Where is such a wise leader within the modern descendants of Joseph's son Manasseh? Where is the leader who is able to see the dangers ahead and take the necessary steps to protect the nation's interests and the safety of its people? Sadly, the results of the recent presidential elections show a divided electorate and a potentially crippled executive branch at a time when clear and decisive leadership is needed in foreign policy. America needs a capable team of leaders who can formulate a credible foreign policy and inspire the confidence of the world's nations. Time may be running out.

The unseen factor

Leaders can plan, but unforeseen events can cause chain reactions that change the course of history. Witness the assassination of Austrian Archduke Ferdinand by an unknown Serbian anarchist in July 1914. Within weeks events spun out of the control of leaders and diplomats and plunged the world into war.

Former British Prime Minister Harold McMillan was once asked what key factors shaped his administration. "Events, my dear boy, events," was his reply.

What unexpected event could occur that would set in motion a string of events radically changing the current world balance of power? No one can know for sure, but the Bible advises us that the best plans of human leaders don't always work out.

Psalm 2 shows that nations devise and scheme to empty ends when their will does not fit the purpose of the Lord. Treaties and alliances that serve only national interests will come to nothing. "Why do the nations rage, and the people plot a vain thing? The kings of the earth set themselves, and the rulers take counsel together, against the Lord and against His Anointed, saying, 'Let us break Their bonds in pieces and cast away Their cords from us.' He who sits in the heavens shall laugh; the Lord shall hold them in derision" (Psalm 2:1-4).

From the book of Daniel we learn that God rules over the nations and His will is ultimately accomplished. "Blessed be the name of God forever and ever, for wisdom and might are His. And He changes the times and the seasons; He removes kings and raises up kings; He gives wisdom to the wise and knowledge to those who have understanding. He reveals deep and secret things; He knows what is in the darkness, and light dwells with Him" (Daniel 2:20-22).

Daniel interpreted dreams and received visions that tell of the rise and fall of great world powers through history. In Daniel 10:13-20, we are given a glimpse into what appear to be titanic struggles for power and control over the destiny of nations. Michael, a princely angel, comes to reveal understanding to Daniel and says he was hindered in his mission for 21 days by "the prince of the kingdom of Persia...." As he leaves Daniel in verse 20, he says he returns to the fight and expects another "prince of Greece" to come.

We are shown a glimpse of the great spiritual powers that support nations and empires. Satan has historically marshaled physical forces to fight against the plan and purposes of God. Paul clearly understood this when he defined where the real enemy lies in Ephesians 6:12, "For we do not wrestle against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this age, against spiritual hosts of wickedness in the heavenly places."

Powerful spiritual forces are at work in today's world. Events that can shape the whole future of the world can happen suddenly. Specific end-time events can take place without warning. We are told to watch and to love the truth. If we do, we'll have the context to understand events of the coming years. WNP