Within minutes of the appearance of former Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger on the balcony of St. Peter's as the newly elected Pope Benedict XVI, a commentator said one of the new pope's priorities would be the "re-conversion of Europe."

If so, he will be laboring against centuries of decline in belief and church attendance in Europe. He may get his chance if the expected outcome of this month's French referendum on the European constitution goes the way polls show it will.

French vote on European constitution

On May 29, French voters will vote yes or no on the adoption of the European constitution. Although considerable efforts are being made to reverse this trend, recent polls have shown that 53 to 55 percent would vote "no."

All it takes is one EU member nation to say no and theoretically the constitution is all but dead. Valery Giscard d'Estang, former president of France and father of Europe's constitutional treaty, has said there would be a "crisis" if the treaty were rejected. Since this document is the result of major negotiations and compromises involving thousands of participants, it is likely a new constitution would have to be negotiated.

Several factors are fueling the French opposition, not all of them related to the merits of the document. The French electorate has grown increasingly unhappy with the Chirac government and the direction of the French economy. People are unhappy with the unemployment rate, which is over 10 percent. Workers want higher pay and fear the government may require more than the present 35-hour work week. Large demonstrations throughout the country illustrate the deep dissatisfaction with government policy.

Scandals within the Chirac government also fuel the opposition. In March a trial began for 47 people associated with Jacques Chirac, including politicians, party officials and representatives of some of France's biggest building companies. The defendants are implicated in corruption schemes dating back to when Chirac was the mayor of Paris in the 1990s. This has clouded the credibility of the political elite who favor ratification of the constitution.

In addition, many French no longer see the EU as something that enhances French culture and prestige. Whether this is true or not, it certainly reflects a lack of the leadership needed to convince voters that moving ahead with the European project is in their best interest. It may also show a decline in France's role within the EU. In the past it has been described as the "indispensable country" among member nations. A French "no" on the constitution could lead to a shuffling of the deck among the leading European nations.

Investor fears

International investors are carefully watching the vote as well. Eric Chaney, chief European economist at Morgan Stanley, was quoted in the April 4 Financial Times as saying a "no" vote in France could hit the euro, increase the differentials in bond prices between European countries and increase the risk premiums demanded by investors in countries such as Turkey, a nation with a strong desire to enter the EU.

The same article quotes Tim Ash, an analyst at Bear Stearns, as saying, "A No vote on the French referendum could complicate Turkey's EU membership talks. The question would be: How can the EU continue to expand when its institutions are in doubt?" ("Investors Fear Effect of French No to Constitution").

Even if France reverses itself in the days prior to the vote, there are other nations waiting in the wings to say no. The Dutch government is taking measures to win a "yes" vote, as polls show 53 percent of the electorate is opposed to the treaty. And then there is Britain. Though the United Kingdom's vote isn't imminent, it seems unlikely at this juncture that Britain will vote "yes." After all, Britain is one of two EU nations yet to adopt the euro as the basis of their monetary systems.

If rejected, would another constitutional effort be launched? Would it lead to a two-tier EU with, say, a rearrangement into a smaller inner core of major nations bound to one set of agreements, and another larger category for other nations, consigned to the periphery, who would not have the same commitment?

Such an arrangement has been suggested in the past as a means of regulating the disparity in size and influence of the many nations who either are planning to seek or are seeking EU membership. It is hard to manage a community of nations that range in size from Germany to Estonia. Add the idea of admitting the Muslim nation of Turkey to the mix, and you see why you have an unstable, hard-to-manage mixture, like the biblical "iron mixed with miry clay" (Daniel 2:43, King James Version).

The church and the EU

It is well known that the late Pope John Paul II was appalled at the omission of any reference to the historic connection between Christianity and Europe in the present constitution. No amount of lobbying by the Vatican could dissuade the writers of the document from their determination to write a secular constitution. The Continent has been described as "post-Christian," with the teachings of Christianity having little impact on the daily lives of a majority of people. It is this condition the new pope may seek to address in the months and years ahead.

The new pontiff's chosen name, Benedict XVI, has caused many to speculate on the form and shape his reign may take, since a new pope chooses a name that reflects his philosophy. Benedict XV was the pope during World War I who sought to prevent the great conflict that plunged the 20th century into decades of turmoil. He tried to heal the animosity between modernist and traditional forces in the church and dreamed of healing the breach with Orthodox churches.

Will the new Benedict seek to use his office to reconcile the differing factions of our present age and prevent the emergence of another time of world conflict? In his initial formal statements, he has already begun to reach out. Time will tell if he will be successful. But there is no doubt he will face a number of pressing issues immediately.

Many articles have listed the challenges before the Catholic Church. Among them is the hard, cold fact of a declining number of ordained priests, especially in the developing regions of Asia, Africa and Latin America, the regions where the greatest growth in the church is taking place.

Another problem is the growing number of voices demanding change in many of the basic traditions of the church. Ending the requirement of priestly celibacy, many say, would open the doors for more men in the priesthood. Ordaining women priests is another change many progressives would like to see. Pope John Paul II, and most of the cardinals he appointed, opposed any change in these teachings. Yet there are many voices in North America and Europe who feel the church must loosen its tight grip on these and other matters.

Pope must include the "global South"

Writing in the April 18 Wall Street Journal, John-Peter Pham highlighted what might be the most significant challenge before the church in the coming decades. It is the fact of a shift in the center of power away from Europe toward what he calls the "global South."

"Europeans and North Americans presently make up only a third of all Catholics. By 2025—that is, conceivably by the end of the next pontificate—that proportion will slip even further to barely one-fourth. As the historian Philip Jenkins has observed, the 20th century was 'clearly the last in which whites dominated the Catholic Church: Europe simply is not The Church.'"

Of the 115 cardinals who voted in the recent conclave, the breakdown was 58 European and 57 non-European. In the coming years, the numbers are likely to tilt toward the non-European.

Pham makes the observation that "many have been slow to appreciate... that these numbers represent not just a demographic shift, but also one that might have seismic repercussions for an array of ecclesiastical and theological issues. In fact, if John Paul's Vatican has appeared in recent years to be deaf to the demands of its stagnant and aging Western flocks, it was because the late pope was being attentive to dynamic younger flocks in the developing world. It might well be that this conclave is the last one where issues dear to the hearts of First World Catholics will figure prominently, and the first where a whole series of new concerns emanating from the global South will come to the fore."

Of course, U.S. and Canadian Catholics contribute the majority of the church's income, even with the scandals draining their wealth. So their voice isn't likely to lose all influence with Rome.

Papal biographer George Weigel, commenting just minutes after the appearance of Benedict XVI, said he expected the new pope's first priority would be the "reconversion of Europe." It is clear the church's identity and influence in Europe is waning. Not only has a modern materialistic culture sapped the spiritual focus of the Continent, but it also is under great pressure from a rising Muslim population.

As mentioned, Pope John Paul II was distressed when the present European constitution failed to refer to Europe's historic Christian roots. The new pope holds the same view, and Benedict does not favor the admission of Turkey into the EU, which he believes would further dilute a Christian Europe.

Look for the church to focus on what it sees as threats to the heartland of Christian civilization, and take steps to revitalize its presence and influence in Europe. Its dynamic new growth may be coming from the developing world, but the Roman Catholic Church has not written off Europe as dead. Their identities and futures are closely bound together.

However, it is interesting to note the reference to "the global South" in the Wall Street Journal. While the reference includes a wide variety of peoples and cultures from Asia to Latin America, there is a biblical reference to the "South" that is more specific regarding a region that will have a dynamic impact on Europe.

Bible prophecy foretells a power from the south, a "king of the South" (Daniel 11:40), which will attack a power called the "king of the North." We believe that the Bible indicates Europe to be the "king of the North." (North and south in the prophecy are given in respect to Jerusalem.) The full prophecy shows a major incursion into the Middle East by the "king of the North" in response to this attack by the "king of the South." (Be sure to request our booklet The Middle East in Bible Prophecy to read the full explanation of Daniel's prophecy.)

The Catholic Church has been historically wedded to the powers of Europe through various alliances and compacts. Though this relationship has been weakened in modern times, the Bible shows a point in the future when this church-state relationship will come together.

The result will be a world power system unlike any seen before. It will appear to be a force for good, likely bringing peace to various regions and preventing the competing civilizations of the world from ending in complete destruction. With the power of miracles, a great religious leader will first draw attention to himself, and then give credibility and influence to a powerful political leader presiding over a collection of nations (Revelation 13).

Yet the Bible shows this system of nations will be unstable, like iron mixed with potter's clay (Daniel 2:41), and will endure only for a short time. But the global impact of this system of church and state will be significant. You can read more about this in our free booklet, The Book of Revelation Unveiled.

We are watching historic events unfold before our eyes. The story of Europe and religion is yet to be understood in the light of biblical prophecy. Watch for further articles on this subject in future issues. WNP